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Nov 4 / Jonathan

Sam Wang predicts

Sam Wang, of the Princeton Election Consortium, weighs in with a final prediction of today’s vote.

Final predictions for 2008

PRESIDENT

Electoral vote: The final polling snapshot is Obama 352 EV, McCain 186 EV. The confidence bands are 68% [337,367] Obama EV, 95% [316,378] Obama EV.

Bias analysis: I expect cell phone users missing from landline surveys to give Obama a 1% boost. Based on the bias adjustment I gave you earlier, this scenario brings the median to a level that is still within the 68% confidence band above. I use it as my personal prediction: Obama 364 EV, McCain 174 EV.

Popular vote: The median Obama-McCain margin is Obama +7.0+/-0.8% (n=9, 10/31-11/2). The error bar incorporates assignment of undecided voters. My final prediction is Obama 53%, McCain 46%, third-party candidates 1%.

Over at 538, I don’t see Nate Silver’s “official” prediction (does he do that?), but here’s today’s summary graphic:

FA6C094A-B186-41A7-8822-F7C9364B8780.jpg

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